Exploring post-growth futures
In a recent study published in the journal Futures, we examined how foresight methods can be combined to support research on post-growth futures. The study presents a practical approach for exploring how societies might achieve human wellbeing while remaining within planetary boundaries, and demonstrates how participatory foresight can help identify alternative development pathways in an increasingly uncertain world.
Post-growth research investigates how economies and societies could prosper without relying on continuous economic growth. Because such futures differ significantly from current economic systems, researchers face a fundamental challenge: how can we systematically explore possibilities that have few historical precedents? The study argues that foresight methods are particularly valuable for addressing this challenge, helping researchers and stakeholders move beyond assumptions rooted in present-day economic structures.
Integrating horizon scanning and scenario building
The research focuses on integrating two complementary approaches: horizon scanning and scenario building. Horizon scanning seeks to identify emerging trends, weak signals, potential disruptions and other developments that could shape the future. Scenario building then uses these insights to develop coherent narratives about different future worlds. While both methods are widely used separately, relatively few studies have demonstrated how they can be combined into a single participatory process.
The foresight exercise looked ahead to 2050 and involved researchers from eight countries representing a range of disciplines relevant to sustainability and post-growth research. The process began with horizon scanning. Researchers contributed future-oriented statements covering social, technological, ecological, economic, political, legal, ethical and demographic dimensions. This generated 567 statements describing possible future developments. After filtering and refining the results, participants classified the most novel statements as trends, megatrends, weak signals, wild cards or hypes, while also assessing the likely direction and strength of their impacts.
Particular attention was given to weak signals and wild cards. Weak signals are early indications of potentially important change, while wild cards are low-probability but high-impact events. The researchers argue that these categories are especially useful for exploring futures that differ substantially from current trajectories because they highlight developments that might otherwise be overlooked.
Developing and refining future scenarios
The results of this horizon-scanning phase were then used directly in the scenario-building process. Participants selected four key driving forces that emerged from the exercise: the rate of participation in society, intensification of ecosystem use and fragmentation, respect for human and non-human diversity, and ethicality in business. These drivers formed the foundation for a set of scenarios exploring different combinations of social and ecological conditions.
Through a series of facilitated workshops, the researchers developed eight scenarios describing qualitatively different post-growth futures. Four of these were selected for further refinement: “autocratic collapse”, “democratic caring for nature”, “ecological autocracy”, and “elitist green bubble”. Rather than predicting which future will occur, the scenarios were designed to illuminate a broad range of possibilities and stimulate discussion about how different social choices could influence long-term outcomes.
To strengthen and validate the scenarios, the team subsequently conducted a two-round online Delphi process involving 52 experts from academia, government, industry and civil society across 29 countries. Participants assessed the plausibility and desirability of different developments, explored connections between key drivers, and identified potential policy interventions that could shape future trajectories.
Methodological contributions and implications
An additional component of the research used artificial intelligence tools to analyse the emotional content of the future statements generated during horizon scanning. The analysis found that neutral sentiments dominated, but emotions such as fear, sadness, anger and disgust appeared frequently, particularly in statements related to ecological challenges. Positive emotions were rare. According to the authors, this finding illustrates the difficulties many researchers encounter when imagining futures amid today’s environmental crises.
The study concludes that horizon scanning and scenario building can be effectively integrated into a single foresight process, particularly when exploring complex sustainability challenges. The approach allows emerging signals identified during horizon scanning to become the building blocks of scenarios, creating a stronger link between the two methods than is often achieved in practice. The researchers also show that such exercises can be conducted fully online, enabling participation from geographically dispersed experts.
For policymakers and sustainability researchers, the study’s central contribution is methodological. Rather than advocating a particular future, it provides a structured way to explore how different social, economic and ecological choices could interact over the coming decades. In doing so, it offers a framework for considering a wider range of futures than those produced by simple trend extrapolation, while encouraging dialogue across disciplines and stakeholder groups.
Access the full article in Futures below:
The full article may be cited as:
É. Hideg, A. Márton, Zs. Csuport, J. Ding, M. Fischer, Sz Fodor, J. Gáspár, T. Hirvilammi, G. Kiss, A. Szathmári, A. Köves (2026) Foresight for post-growth research: Integrating horizon scanning and scenario building for a sustainable future, Futures, Volume 181, 2026, 103856, ISSN 0016-3287 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2026.103856